Two decades of endemic dengue in Bangladesh (2000–2022): trends, seasonality, and impact of temperature and rainfall patterns on transmission dynamics

Mohammad Nayeem Hasan; Ibrahim Khalil; Muhammad Abdul Baker Chowdhury; Mahbubur Rahman; Md Asaduzzaman; Masum Billah; Laila Arjuman Banu; Mahbub-Ul Alam; Atik Ahsan; Tieble Traore; Md. Jamal Uddin; Roberto Galizi; Ilaria Russo; Alimuddin Zumla; Najmul Haider

doi:10.1093/jme/tjae001

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22 January 2024 Two decades of endemic dengue in Bangladesh (2000–2022): trends, seasonality, and impact of temperature and rainfall patterns on transmission dynamics

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Mohammad Nayeem Hasanhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-2383-0459,¹ Ibrahim Khalilhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-5065-860X,² Muhammad Abdul Baker Chowdhuryhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-2145-0938,³ Mahbubur Rahmanhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-8577-8281,^4,5 Md Asaduzzamanhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8885-6721,⁶ Masum Billah,⁶ Laila Arjuman Banuhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-4409-9009,⁷ Mahbub-Ul Alamhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-6940-364X,⁸ Atik Ahsan,⁸ Tieble Traore,⁹ Md. Jamal Uddin,^1,10 Roberto Galizi,¹¹ Ilaria Russo,¹² Alimuddin Zumla,¹³ Najmul Haiderhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-5980-3460^11,*

¹Department of Statistics, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology, Sylhet 3114, Bangladesh
²Department of Livestock Services, Ministry of Fisheries and Livestock, Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh
³Department of Neurosurgery, University of Florida College of Medicine, Gainesville, FL 32610, USA
⁴The Royal Veterinary College, University of London, Hawkshead Lane, North Mymms, Hatfield, Hertfordshire, UK
⁵Institute of Epidemiology, Disease Control and Research (IEDCR), Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Mohakhali, Dhaka, Bangladesh
⁶School of Digital, Technologies, and Arts, Staffordshire University, Stoke on Trent ST4 2DE, UK
⁷Department of Anatomy, Bangabandhu Sheik Mujib Medical University, Dhaka, Bangladesh
⁸Environmental Intervention Unit, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Diseases Research, Bangladesh (ICDDR,B), Dhaka 1212, Bangladesh
⁹Emergency Preparedness and Response Programme, WHO Regional Office for Africa, Dakar Hub, Dakar, Senegal
¹⁰Department of General Educational and Development, Daffodil International University, Dhaka, Bangladesh
¹¹School of Life Sciences, Faculty of Natural Sciences, Keele University, Keele, Staffordshire ST5 5BG, UK
¹²School of Medicine, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Keele University, Staffordshire ST5 5BG, UK
¹³Division of Infection and Immunity, Centre for Clinical Microbiology, University College London and NIHR-BRC, University College London Hospitals, London, UK

^*Corresponding author, mail: n.haider@keele.ac.uk

J. of Medical Entomology, 61(2):345-353 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1093/jme/tjae001

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Abstract

The objectives of this study were to compare dengue virus (DENV) cases, deaths, case-fatality ratio [CFR], and meteorological parameters between the first and the recent decades of this century (2000–2010 vs. 2011–2022) and to describe the trends, seasonality, and impact of change of temperature and rainfall patterns on transmission dynamics of dengue in Bangladesh. For the period 2000–2022, dengue cases and death data from Bangladesh's Ministry of Health and Family Welfare's website, and meteorological data from the Bangladesh Meteorological Department were analyzed. A Poisson regression model was performed to identify the impact of meteorological parameters on the monthly dengue cases. A forecast of dengue cases was performed using an autoregressive integrated moving average model. Over the past 23 yr, a total of 244,246 dengue cases were reported including 849 deaths (CFR = 0.35%). The mean annual number of dengue cases increased 8 times during the second decade, with 2,216 cases during 2000–2010 vs. 18,321 cases during 2011–2022.The mean annual number of deaths doubled (21 vs. 46), but the overall CFR has decreased by one-third (0.69% vs. 0.23%). Concurrently, the annual mean temperature increased by 0.49 °C, and rainfall decreased by 314 mm with altered precipitation seasonality. Monthly mean temperature (Incidence risk ratio [IRR]: 1.26), first-lagged rainfall (IRR: 1.08), and second-lagged rainfall (IRR: 1.17) were significantly associated with monthly dengue cases. The increased local temperature and changes in rainfall seasonality might have contributed to the increased dengue cases in Bangladesh.

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Mohammad Nayeem Hasan, Ibrahim Khalil, Muhammad Abdul Baker Chowdhury, Mahbubur Rahman, Md Asaduzzaman, Masum Billah, Laila Arjuman Banu, Mahbub-Ul Alam, Atik Ahsan, Tieble Traore, Md. Jamal Uddin, Roberto Galizi, Ilaria Russo, Alimuddin Zumla, and Najmul Haider "Two decades of endemic dengue in Bangladesh (2000–2022): trends, seasonality, and impact of temperature and rainfall patterns on transmission dynamics," Journal of Medical Entomology 61(2), 345-353, (22 January 2024). https://doi.org/10.1093/jme/tjae001

Received: 22 July 2023; Accepted: 5 January 2024; Published: 22 January 2024

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ARTICLE SOURCE

Journal of Medical Entomology
Vol. 61 • No. 2
March 2024

KEYWORDS

Bangladesh

climate change

dengue

rainfall

temperature

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Mohammad Nayeem Hasan, Ibrahim Khalil, Muhammad Abdul Baker Chowdhury, Mahbubur Rahman, Md Asaduzzaman, Masum Billah, Laila Arjuman Banu, Mahbub-Ul Alam, Atik Ahsan, Tieble Traore, Md. Jamal Uddin, Roberto Galizi, Ilaria Russo, Alimuddin Zumla, Najmul Haider "Two decades of endemic dengue in Bangladesh (2000–2022): trends, seasonality, and impact of temperature and rainfall patterns on transmission dynamics," Journal of Medical Entomology, 61(2), 345-353, (22 January 2024)

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