A simple method is applied to provide a preliminary assessment of climate change impacts on the species planting domains for Tectona grandis (teak), Swietenia macrophylla (mahogany) and Pinus caribaea (Caribbean pine) in Fiji and T. grandis in Papua New Guinea and Solomon Islands. Climate values in a 10 minute grid (approximately 18 km spacing) are used to identify locations with climatically suitable conditions for the species. The impacts of climate change on plantations of all three target species in Fiji are considered to be low in 2030 and 2050. However, impacts may become medium for S. macrophylla and P. caribaea in 2080 using an A2 ‘business as usual’ scenario, as some areas begin to fall outside climatically suitable limits for these species. The likely impacts of climate change on T. grandis sites in PNG and Solomon Islands are also assessed as low, as the main plantation areas remain largely in climatically suitable areas until at least 2050 under the A2 scenario. The implications for vulnerability of these plantations are discussed, along with strengths and weaknesses of the method, and possible further analyses.
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1 April 2014
Climate Change Impacts on Species Planting Domains: A Preliminary Assessment for Selected Plantation Forests In Fiji, Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands
T.H. Booth,
T. Jovanovic
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International Forestry Review
Vol. 16 • No. 2
April 2014
Vol. 16 • No. 2
April 2014
Pacific islands
Pinus caribaea
species selection
Swietenia macrophylla
Tectona grandis