A pattern of population crash and rapid recovery is a common feature of the pacification and settlement experience of the indigenous peoples of tropical South America. Despite the obvious importance of these events to the demographic and anthropological sciences as a whole, as well as their significant practical implications, little is known about the microdemographic determinants of these paired phenomena. Using methods of asymptotic and stochastic demographic analysis, we reconstructed the microdemographic drivers of this history among one indigenous population: the Northern Aché of eastern Paraguay. This article explores the implications of these relationships for understanding the overall demographic turnaround observed within similar groups, as well as for the future trajectory of the Northern Aché in particular.