Global trends of increasing rural-urban migration and population urbanization could provide opportunities for nature conservation, particularly in regions where deforestation is driven by subsistence agriculture. We analyzed the role of rural population as a driver of deforestation and its contribution to urban population growth from 1970 to the present in the Atlantic Forest of Argentina, a global conservation priority. We created future land-use-cover scenarios based on human demographic parameters and the relationship between rural population and land-cover change between 1970 and 2006. In 2006, native forest covered 50% of the province, but by 2030 all scenarios predicted a decrease that ranged from 18 to 39% forest cover. Between 1970 and 2001, rural migrants represented 20% of urban population growth and are expected to represent less than 10% by 2030. This modeling approach shows how rural—urban migration and land-use planning can favor nature conservation with little impact on urban areas.
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1 May 2011
Implications of Rural-Urban Migration for Conservation of the Atlantic Forest and Urban Growth in Misiones, Argentina (1970–2030)
Andrea E. Izquierdo,
Héctor R. Grau,
T. Mitchell Aide
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AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment
Vol. 40 • No. 3
May 2011
Vol. 40 • No. 3
May 2011
deforestation
globalization
Human demography
Landscape planning
STELLA
Subtropical Argentina
