Zhao, C.; Ge, J., and Ding, P., 2014. Impact of sea level rise on storm surges around the Changjiang Estuary.

The potential impacts of sea level rise (SLR) on storm surge around the Changjiang Estuary and the Hangzhou Bay are investigated using a shallow-water circulation model ADCIRC coupled with a spectral wave model SWAN. The validated model is applied to two typical typhoons under three scenarios: 1.0 m SLR, 0.483 m SLR and present sea-level condition. In consideration of interactions of tide, waves and surge, the impact exerted by SLR on tide and waves are also discussed. The migration of the amphidromes generated by SLR causes the co-phase lines to defect relatively counterclockwise near the Changjiang Estuary. The amplitude of tide increases slightly at the inner mouth of the Changjiang River, and more notable increases are presented at the northern part of the Changjiang River Mouth. The amplitude of tide decreases in adjacent areas of the Hangzhou Bay. The wave heights respond to the sea level rise in a non-linear and spatially non-uniform manner. Comparing the maximum wave height between each scenario, the wave height increase is found to be significant in shallow areas due to the increase in water depth. The breaking locations of the wave shift shoreward. The general patterns in wave height change are approximately determined by the typhoon path and topography. As for changes in surge and elevation, time series of water surface curves and peak value distribution are all analyzed. The curves of surges and water elevations accelerate slightly relative to that of the control scenario. The surges are not very sensitive to the SLR and the variations in elevation could mainly attribute changes in tide, with the changing extents ranging from a few to a dozen centimeters. Taking the value of SLR into account, the peak of elevation near shore could experience a significant increase in the future. All the properties respond to sea level rise in a non-linear and spatially non-uniform manner.