Li, H.; Lin, L., and Burks-Copes, K.A., 2013. Modeling of coastal inundation, storm surge, and relative sea-level rise at Naval Station Norfolk, Norfolk, Virginia, U.S.A.

The potential risk and effects of storm-surge damage caused by the combination of hurricane-force waves, tides, and relative sea-level-rise (RSLR) scenarios were examined at the U.S. Naval Station, Norfolk, Virginia. A hydrodynamic and sediment transport modeling system validated with measured water levels from Hurricane Isabel was used to simulate two synthesized storms representing 50-year and 100-year return-period hurricanes, a northeaster, and five future RSLR scenarios to evaluate the combined impacts of inundation on this military installation in the lower Chesapeake Bay. The naval base topography and nearshore water body of Hampton Roads were included in the coastal modeling system (CMS), a suite of surge, circulation, wave, sediment transport, and morphology evolution models. The modeling domain was a rectangular area covering the entire Naval Station Norfolk in the Hampton Roads and the mouths of the James and Elizabeth rivers. A variable-resolution grid system was created with a finer resolution of 10 m in the naval base and a coarser resolution of 300 m in the regions away from the base. The boundary-forcing conditions to the CMS were regional storm surge produced by the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC),and wave conditions by the Simulating WAve Nearshore (SWAN) model. The CMS calculated the local water-surface elevation and storm-surge inundation for combined RSLR, surge, waves, and wind. Results indicate that synthetic storms would cause extensive inundation of coastal land around the naval base. Approximately 60% of the land would be under water with the 100-year storm for the present sea level, and 80% for estimated RSLR of 2 m.