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24 July 2015 Thyroid Dose Estimates for a Cohort of Belarusian Children Exposed to 131I from the Chernobyl Accident: Assessment of Uncertainties
Vladimir Drozdovitch, Victor Minenko, Ivan Golovanov, Arkady Khrutchinsky, Tatiana Kukhta, Semion Kutsen, Nickolas Luckyanov, Evgenia Ostroumova, Sergey Trofimik, Paul Voillequé, Steven L. Simon, André Bouville
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Abstract

Deterministic thyroid radiation doses due to iodine-131 (131I) intake were reconstructed in a previous article for 11,732 participants of the Belarusian–American cohort study of thyroid cancer and other thyroid diseases in individuals exposed during childhood or adolescence to fallout from the Chernobyl accident. The current article describes an assessment of uncertainties in reconstructed thyroid doses that accounts for the shared and unshared errors. Using a Monte Carlo simulation procedure, 1,000 sets of cohort thyroid doses due to 131I intake were calculated. The arithmetic mean of the stochastic thyroid doses for the entire cohort was 0.68 Gy. For two-thirds of the cohort the arithmetic mean of individual stochastic thyroid doses was less than 0.5 Gy. The geometric standard deviation of stochastic doses varied among cohort members from 1.33 to 5.12 with an arithmetic mean of 1.76 and a geometric mean of 1.73. The uncertainties in thyroid dose were driven by the unshared errors associated with the estimates of values of thyroid mass and of the 131I activity in the thyroid of the subject; the contribution of shared errors to the overall uncertainty was small. These multiple sets of cohort thyroid doses will be used to evaluate the radiation risks of thyroid cancer and noncancer thyroid diseases, taking into account the structure of the errors in the dose estimates.

Vladimir Drozdovitch, Victor Minenko, Ivan Golovanov, Arkady Khrutchinsky, Tatiana Kukhta, Semion Kutsen, Nickolas Luckyanov, Evgenia Ostroumova, Sergey Trofimik, Paul Voillequé, Steven L. Simon, and André Bouville "Thyroid Dose Estimates for a Cohort of Belarusian Children Exposed to 131I from the Chernobyl Accident: Assessment of Uncertainties," Radiation Research 184(2), 203-218, (24 July 2015). https://doi.org/10.1667/RR13791.1
Received: 1 May 2014; Accepted: 1 April 2015; Published: 24 July 2015
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