The northern Great Plains of North America has experienced a number of severe grasshopper infestations over the last 100 y. Grasshopper densities have been observed to be in synchrony over vast geographical areas. Weather is probably the most significant factor that affects fluctuations in population abundance of Melanoplus sanguinipes, the migratory grasshopper. Inferential modeling was used to develop a bioclimatic model of M. sanguinipes that closely agreed with current distribution and abundance patterns of this species in North America over a 30-y period. Incremental climate change scenarios were then applied to the bioclimatic model to predict changes to potential distribution and relative abundance of M. sanguinipes, resulting from climate change. Compared to predicted range and distribution under current climate conditions, model results indicated that M. sanguinipes would have increased range and relative abundance for temperature increases between 1 and 7°C. The model predicted that the range of this crop pest would be extended to regions that are not currently used for agricultural production in North America.
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1 June 2006
Bioclimatic model of Melanoplus sanguinipes (Fabricius) (Orthoptera: Acrididae) populations in Canada and the potential impacts of climate change
Owen Olfert,
Ross M. Weiss
Journal of Orthoptera Research
Vol. 15 • No. 1
June 2006
Vol. 15 • No. 1
June 2006
bioclimate model
climate change
CLIMEX®
crop pest
Melanoplus sanguinipes
migratory grasshopper