Global climate change is expected to increase the aridity of semiarid landscapes by increasing heat stress and decreasing soil moisture, negatively impacting plant survival, growth, and reproduction and forcing major shifts in plant community composition. To better understand potential vegetation shifts, we investigated how aspect-mediated differences in soil moisture and nitrogen influence tree-grass and tree species coexistence in pinyon-juniper woodlands in the southwestern United States (at the Sevilleta Long Term Ecological Research Station in New Mexico). We measured soil moisture, total mineralized soil nitrogen, grass cover, and woody cover and demography of the two dominant trees—two-needle pinyon pine (Pinus edulis) and one-seeded juniper (Juniperus monosperma)—along 32 transects on north-facing and south-facing slopes. Tree cover was greater on north-facing than on south-facing slopes, reflecting significantly higher soil moisture on northern aspects. Aspect did not affect soil nitrogen or grass cover. Population structure for juniper was influenced by aspect while reproductive output was influenced by aspect in both species, suggesting that differences in drought tolerance between these codominant tree species may be responsible for differences in the utilization of resources in our study area. Our results suggest that soil moisture can affect tree cover and tree-grass coexistence more than does nitrogen. Increasing aridity due to global climate change is likely to decrease woody cover in semiarid landscapes, resulting in systems codominated by grasses and woody species.